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Mike Dee's avatar

I live in upstate NY. I did a quick estimation of what it would take to become Net Zero in accordance with our CLCPA mandates in the future. Givens: (1) demand will increase by around 50% (if people don't all leave NYS by then), and (2) we retain existing Hydro (Niagara Falls) and remaining 2 nuclear plants, and (3) we currently obtain less than 10% of our total electrical energy (integral of power over time), and (4) a 4-day Dunkelflaute with battery storage to be recharged in a single day between Dunkelflautes.

It would take 40 times MORE Wind and Solar generation capability than we now have, and probably more than 1000 times more Battery Storage.

Then, Battery Farms would need to be totally replaced on a 10-12 year cycle, and all Wind and Solar infrastructure would need to be replaced every 15-20 years. Where will we put the junk? How will we manufacture new stuff using only WInd and Solar as energy sources for electricity?

Now, you can create any scenario for Dunkelflaute, but the one above (4 days) probably won't even achieve 98% reliability.

The whole GND framework is a disaster.

Ed Reid's avatar

I think you have grossly underestimated the future demand increase. Othersise, right on.

Mike Dee's avatar

Depends on the infiltration of EVs.

Ed Reid's avatar

There is a lot of industrial energy consumption (coal, oil, NG) which would also have to be replaced.

Mike Dee's avatar

Yes. I was speaking solely of Electricity Generation. This is why I advocate for 100% Nuclear for Electricity generation. Leave fossil fuels for what they are good for - Transportation, Mining, Heating, etc. No reason to burn NG for generating Baseload Electricity if we can use Nuclear. This will extend the useful life of fossil fuels. Imagine trying to run freight railroads using electricity! Try to make concrete for turbine bases using only electricity! It's ludicrous.

That is why I wrote NY Senate Bill S6732, (Sen. George Borrello) requiring that all Net Zero infrastructure components be mined, processed, manufactured, and installed using ONLY NET ZERO energy sources. Dems in the Senate never let the bill out of committee - because the KNOW that Net Zero power is NOT sustainable.

Gene Frenkle's avatar

So why are Republicans pushing for even more LNG exports?? Seems like we should be keeping the natural gas to fuel our own economy?? Maybe Biden was right to pause LNG export permit approvals? 😉

Ed Reid's avatar

Biden was trying to "save the planet" from fossil fuels, not save them for us.

Gene Frenkle's avatar

Maybe…but then Putin invaded Ukraine and he started promoting fracking and LNG exports.

Ed Reid's avatar

I suspect that had to do more with Ukraine than with us.

Gene Frenkle's avatar

Who cares? The outcome was that Biden achieved arguably the most important America First goal and Republicans freaked out and increased their attacks on Biden. Btw, the debt ratio actually significantly decreased in 2022 and that also angered Republicans and now Trump is exploding the deficit again with the BBB.

Gene Frenkle's avatar

Why do Republicans want to max out LNG exports when presumably we have no alternatives?? And Trump’s top economist looked at the 2008 Great Recession with fresh eyes and discovered that high energy prices were the proximate of the economic downturn. So after 8 years of Bush/Cheney/Tillerson crafting energy policy we had a terrible recession because of high fossil fuel prices!! And your solution is to put your faith in the same group of people!?! Literally the definition of insanity!! Oh, wait, Trump shouting down Secretary Wright is your “solution” to high oil prices! 😉

Ed Reid's avatar

I do not recall proposing that "solution".

Gene Frenkle's avatar

It happened yesterday. Wright said gasoline prices might not return to the 2025 lows until 2027…that upset Trump.

Jeff Chestnut's avatar

There seems to be a shortage of brains in east coast and west coast policy makers.

Ed Reid's avatar

Many are inumerate and refuse to consult those who are numerate. Understanding the issues with a renewable plus storage grid is neither brain science or rocket surgery. ;-)