Iron Law of Infrastructure

You have to have it to use it.

The term iron law is derived from Goethe‘s “great, eternal iron laws” in his poem Das Göttliche, (On The Divine). Numerous scholars have propounded iron laws regarding a variety of subjects. There are currently at least two iron laws related to the issues surrounding climate change.

Roger Pielke, Jr. has propounded “The Iron Law of Climate Policy”, which he states as follows: “When policies focused on economic growth confront policies focused on emissions reductions, it is economic growth that will win out every time.” This iron law has been confirmed in numerous polls in which respondents express a willingness to take actions to reduce global warming, but in which their willingness declines dramatically as the cost of those actions increases. I have characterized that reaction as: “altruism dies when it costs”. The rapidly rising energy costs in nations and states aggressively pursuing alternative sources of energy are seriously testing the limits of altruism.

Robert Bryce has propounded “The Iron Law of Power Density”, which he states as follows: “the lower the power density, the greater the resource intensity.” Applied to renewable energy systems, the iron law asserts that these systems require more construction materials and more dedicated geographic area per kilowatt hour than fossil and nuclear generation. Higher material requirements and land area requirements mean higher costs.

Here I propound “The Iron Law of Infrastructure”, which states that infrastructure must exist before the functions which it is intended to support require that support. That might seem like an extremely simple concept, but it is violated frequently in the ongoing transition to renewable sources of energy.

Perhaps the most obvious violation has been the retirement of coal generation facilities before the renewable generation infrastructure required to replace them is installed, connected and operational. It is important to note here that the renewable generation infrastructure required to replace a coal generator, or a natural gas or nuclear generator, must be dispatchable. Relatively little of the renewable generation capacity currently installed and operating is dispatchable, in that the storage capacity required to deliver electricity when intermittent renewable generators are operating below capacity is not installed and operational or is not suitable for the intended purpose. The current battery storage technology is suitable for 2–4 hour storage, but is not suitable to firm days, weeks or months of below rated capacity operation.

Another obvious violation is the unavailability of the reliable electricity supply required for data centers. This issue is aggravated in numerous jurisdictions by renewable generation standards. Data centers require reliable 24/365 power and are generally unwilling to accept the questionable reliability of renewable generation systems firmed by current generation batteries. Many data center developers have chosen to locate in areas where they can install their own fossil or nuclear generation or access such generation provided by others.

However, there are several infrastructure issues which impact their plans. Data centers powered by dedicated natural gas generators require the availability of adequate firm natural gas supply and adequate firm natural gas transmission capacity. Many natural gas generators currently operate reliably during the shoulder and summer months, when gas demand is relatively low, but are forced offline during peak winter periods by customers with firm gas supply requirements.

Originally published here.