California Bragging

Misleadingly Accurate

The governor of California is very vocal regarding the state’s leadership on numerous fronts, including the state’s progress toward a “clean energy” future. The image below was the first of a series of three images posted recently on Facebook, which has become a very popular and inexpensive platform for political advertising. The governor’s personal appearance in this and other ads is likely related to the fact that he is term limited in his position, currently approaching the end of his term and reportedly contemplating a run for the Presidency of the United States in 2028.

“California sets the

pace - not only for

America, but for the world.”

- Gavin Newsom

The following ad by the California Energy Commission (CEC) highlights the growth in the number of hours during which the California electric grid was powered solely by “clean energy”. The graph includes data only for the first half of 2025, though the ad below was published in May 2026. The graph shows that “clean energy” hours for the first half of 2025 slightly exceeded the “clean energy” hours for the entire year 2024. The graph suggests, though it does not document, that “clean energy” hours for all of 2025 would be approximately double the “clean energy” hours in 2024. However, the CEC reported that the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) grid actually experienced 1856 “clean energy” hours in 2025. Summer “clean energy” hours are reduced by higher demand and consumption, while fall and early winter hours are reduced by lower solar insolation.

California Energy Commission

California has the following “clean energy” legal requirements:

• 60% renewable electricity sales by 2030

• 90% “clean” electricity by 2035

• 95% “clean” electricity by 2040

• 100% “clean” electricity by 2045

The CEC data for 2025 document approximately 21% “clean” electricity. However, the share of renewable generated electricity is lower by approximately 4% because it would exclude nuclear and hydro generation, as shown in the grid status graph below. Therefore, California has achieved approximately 28% of its 2030 renewable energy requirement through 2025.

CAISO currently generates more solar energy than is required to meet grid demand on most days and stores most of the excess solar energy for use as the active solar generation contribution decreases in late afternoon, as shown above and in detail below.

However, CAISO does not have access to sufficient storage capacity to store all of the excess solar energy generated on most days and continues to export a small fraction of the excess solar toward the end of the storage period, as shown in the graph below. Also note that CAISO continues to import significant electricity from out of state sources, largely outside the solar generation period.

The ad below states that batteries alone can power 40% of the state. On the day shown in the first graph above batteries provided a peak of approximately 39% of the load for a period of approximately 30 minutes. Storage on that day displaced approximately one half of what otherwise would have been imported electricity.

“California is a leader

in renewable energy,

where batteries alone

can power 40% of the state“

- Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

CAISO has certainly grown its percentage of renewable and “clean energy” over the period shown in the CEC ad above, at a rate of approximately 250 hours of additional clean energy per year. However, achieving the 90% clean energy required by law by 2035 would require providing 100% clean energy for approximately 7,884 hours, an increase of approximately 6,000 hours over the 10-year period, more than double the recent pace of “clean energy” hour increases. This would require a significant increase in solar and wind generation and more than doubling current battery storage capacity to displace the current electricity imports.

This “clean energy” transition has already been very expensive and has been a major contributor California electric rates, which are already approximately 75 - 100% above the national average depending on customer class. The remainder of the transition is very likely to be much more expensive because of the high cost of storage and the need to achieve reliability without relying on electricity imports.

Origtinally published here.