7 Days Mid-Winter

Close Encounters with Unreliability

The graph below shows the demand and fuel mix for the PJM ISO for the seven day period 1/30/2026 – 2/5/2026. This was an abnormally cold period for the region. Peak load during the period was 145 GW at 8 am on 1/30. During the period, nuclear provided a consistent 33.6 GW, while coal contributed 25 - 30 GW. Natural gas generators provided the primary load following generation, varying from 44. – 62.8 GW. Hydro provided from 0.4 – 5.7 GW. Solar provided 5 – 10 GW, typically beginning just after the morning peak. Wind provided up to 5.5 GW on most days, but made no contribution on 2/3 & 2/4. Oil provided 4.7 – 6 GW on peak 1/30 – 2/2.

PJM reported generation outages of up to 26 GW, including forced outages of up to 19 GW over the period. These outages represent approximately 19% of peak demand over the period. It is likely that some of these forced outages were the result of contractual gas supply interruptions to accommodate firm customer gas demand.

The graph below shows the demand and fuel mix for the MISO ISO for the seven day period 1/30/2026 – 2/5/2026. This was an abnormally cold period for the region. Peak demand during the period was 101 GW on 1/30,1/31, 2/1 & 2/5. Nuclear generation provided a consistent 12 GW during the period. Coal generation fluctuated through the period, declining progressively from 38 GW to 28 GW. Natural gas generation provided the primary load following generation, varying from 40 GW to 20 GW. Wind provided 2 – 20 GW throughout the period, while solar provided 6 – 13 GW. MISO also relied on up to 5 GW of imports and other generation on peak through the period..

MISO reported generation outages of up to 28.5 GW over the period, or more than 25% of peak demand. It is likely that some of these outages were forced outages resulting from contractual gas supply interruptions to accommodate firm customer gas demand.

The graph below shows the demand and fuel mix for Duke Energy-Carolinas for the seven days 1/30/2026 – 2/5/2026. This was an abnormally cold period, with weak sun most days and heavy cloudiness, snow and freezing rain on 1/31. Peak load during the period was 20.6 GW at 7:00 pm on 1/31. During the period, nuclear provided a consistent 7.4 GW, while coal provided a relatively consistent 4.8 GW. Natural gas generation provided the primary load following generation, varying from 2.5 – 7.5 GW. Pumped hydro storage provided as much as 2.3 GW in the early evening of 1/31, discharging during peak periods throughout the period and recharging during periods of lower demand. Solar provided only during off-peak periods, and only 400 – 500 MW, with no solar contribution on 1/31. Hydro provided periodic generation each day, with a maximum contribution of 600 MW on 2/2.

Duke Carolina did not report generation outages, though they almost certainly existed.

All three organizations requested customer conservation at some point over the period to relieve pressure on system supply and avoid rotating blackouts.

Originally published here.